Trade deficit hits billion in 2010: StatsCan
Canada had a $ 9-billion merchandise trade deficit last year, nearly double what it was in 2009, as the value of imports rose faster than exports to other countries, Statistics Canada reported Thursday.
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Foreclosure-driven declines in prices, government credits for first-time buyers and near-record-low borrowing costs may keep stoking demand, helping the economy recover from the worst recession since the 1930s. At the same time, more Americans will probably lose their homes as companies cut payrolls, indicating a rebound will be slow to take hold.
“More and more buyers are becoming convinced that there is not a lot of downside left in the housing market,” said Ellen Zentner, a senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “We can count on housing no longer being a drag. The economic recovery is on track.”
Stocks jumped and Treasury securities dropped after the report added to evidence the housing market was turning. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed up 1.9 percent at 1,026.13 in New York. The S&P builder supercomposite index was up 3.6 percent. The yield on the 10-year note jumped to 3.57 percent at 5 p.m. from 3.43 percent late yesterday.

Exceeds Forecast
Existing home sales were forecast to rise to a 5 million annual rate, according to the median forecast of 64 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 4.8 million to 5.25 million. June’s pace was unrevised at 4.89 million.
Sales had reached a 4.49 million pace in January, their lowest level since comparable records began in 1999.
Purchases of existing homes increased 5 percent compared with a year earlier. The median price dropped to $178,400 from the $210,100 in July 2008.
“We are bouncing back,” Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, said in a press conference. Even so, “we still need to wait until year-end before we see price stabilization.”
The number of previously owned unsold homes on the market jumped 7.3 percent to 4.09 million in July, a “notable” increase that exceeded the historical average for the month, according Yun. Sellers who were waiting for the market to turn may now be putting their houses up for sale, he said.
At the current sales pace, it would take 9.4 months to sell those houses, the same as in June. A seven months’ supply is usually consistent with stabilization in prices, Yun said last month.

Distressed Sales
The share of homes sold as foreclosures or otherwise distressed properties held at 31 percent in July, he said.
Today’s report showed sales of existing single-family homes increased 6.5 percent to an annual rate of 4.61 million. Sales of condominiums and co-operatives climbed 13 percent to a 630,000 rate.
Purchases increased in three of four regions, led by a 13 percent jump in the Northeast.
The figures are compiled from contract closings and may reflect purchases agreed upon weeks or months earlier. Many economists consider new-home sales, recorded when a contract is signed, a more timely barometer of the market.
The Commerce Department may report next week that purchases of new houses rose in July to the highest level since November, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Cutting Costs
Home Depot Inc., the largest home-improvement retailer, is among businesses cutting costs to ride out the housing recession. The Atlanta-based company reported second-quarter profit that fell less than analysts estimated and raised its annual earnings forecast after trimming expenses, even as it projected a sales decline for the year.
“Performance across most of our regions is better,” Chief Executive Officer Frank Blake said on a conference call with analysts on Aug. 18. “But caution is still appropriate,” and “we remain concerned by the high level of foreclosure activity,” he said.
About $3.4 trillion worth of houses are at risk of default because the owners owe more than the property is worth, Santa Ana, California-based First American CoreLogic said last week. By putting more homes on the market, foreclosures are keeping inventory higher than levels consistent with stable prices.
Obama administration efforts to revive housing include an $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers who complete the transaction before Dec. 1. The government also is offering lenders incentives to modify the terms of delinquent mortgages, and the Federal Reserve is buying mortgage-backed securities to help reduce borrowing costs.

In the last quarter, South Korea’s economy grew 2.3%, the fastest pace in nearly six years, marking a significant turnaround from the 5% contraction recorded in the fourth quarter of 2008. Still, “South Korea’s economy will shrink 1.8 percent this year, the IMF said yesterday, revising a July prediction for a 3 percent contraction.” Exports, which account for 50% of GDP, have also recovered, and are now rising by nearly 20% on an annualized basis. Retail sales are climbing, and bank lending to households has risen for six straight months. Finally, “Stimulus measures at home and abroad are fueling South Korea’s revival. The government has pledged more than 67 trillion won ($53 billion) in extra spending, helping consumer confidence climb to the highest in almost two years in June.”

However, an inflow of speculative hot money – which has buttressed a rally in Korean stocks – threatens to undo the recovery. “With an anticipated increase in risk appetite, foreign investors may invest further in emerging-market equities, leading to more dollar supply,” said one analyst. The first half 2009 current account surplus set a record, with forecasts for the second half not far behind. Korea’s foreign exchange reserves, meanwhile, have recovered, and could touch $300 Billion within the next year.

Of course, the Central bank is not simply standing by idly. It has already lowered its benchmark rate to a record low 2%, and at yesterday’s monthly monetary policy meeting, it firmly refused to consider raising it for at least six months. Commented one analyst, “There is no urgent need to raise rates. The most likely course of action is that the Bank of Korea will wait until the economy fully recovers, and in particular, they will wait until the unemployment rate stops increasing.” Still, given both that interest rates remain above levels in the west (see chart below) and that the Korean Won is considered undervalued, funds could continue to flow in.

The Central Bank’s other tool is direct intervention in the forex markets, in order to depress the strengthening Won. But this, it is loathe to do: ” ‘It would be better to have a larger foreign exchange reserve in order to better deal with economic crises, but attempts to buy dollars to artificially boost the reserve volume could lead to accusations of currency manipulation, while excess won in the markets could stoke inflation,’ a high-ranking ministry official said.” Still, investors are growing increasingly nervous about this possibility:”A state-run bank that usually doesn’t participate much in the market bought some dollars at the day’s low, prompting speculation about a possible intervention, a local bank trader said.” Sure enough, after hitting the psychologically important level of 1,220 at the end of July, the Won dived. It has yet to bounce back.